Monday, 28 February 2011

Gamble not landed!

One account bet for us today.

One of our favourite stables sent out the quietly fancied Oscar Close, 3pt win @ 3/1
The selection was briefly available at 7/2 (for about a minute!) but the price disappeared as our message was being sent out.

We have a fantastic record with our George Baker bets when we are given the nod and expected this horse to be the subject of a big gamble and put in a big run.

He went off a well backed 9/4 chance and would have been much shorter but for the money for Beau Lake.

He was held up in 3rd place, tracking the front two and always looked to be travelling very smoothly. He traded slightly odds on coming to two out but didn't pick up well and could only manage 3rd to the also well backed Beau Lake.

Disappointing not to have backed the winner but the yard owe us nothing and have a couple lined up for the next week or two so we are very confident this will be 3 points just lent.

Elsewhere we released 2 ante post bets for Cheltenham and a bet for the Grand National to full members today.
With Cheltenham just over 2 weeks away and Aintree just over a month away things are getting very exciting now. If you are thinking of joining, don't delay as we are getting very busy with lots of interest in our service in the last few months in particular.

February is now at a close and we finished the month 22.4 points in profit although that does include the 10 points we have just placed on our ante post bets.
We have now shown a profit in the last 4 months and 9 of the last 10 months although a few of these months were very marginal!

The next few days look fairly quiet although we are hopeful of an account bet tomorrow all being well.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 26 February 2011

Small Hitch

One account bet for us today.

Hitchens, 3pt win @ 3/1 has always been well liked by the stable and is working nicely at home after finishing last season in fine form.

He was backed down to 5/2 at the off and broke well to be settled in around 4th place.
He had to travel pretty wide around the bend but was still in a decent position and we were hoping he would kick on and put the race to bed from there.
He didn't pick up as well as expected though and could only manage 5th, beaten around a length in a bunched finish.

We will probably be releasing two Cheltenham ante post bets tomorrow as well as a Grand National bet to members.

Anyone interested in backing ante post at Cheltenham will be interested to know that Bet365 have now gone non runner no bet on all Festival races.

Its unlikely there will be a bet tomorrow but we will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 25 February 2011

Gamble landed and 1.03 beaten

Another decent day today but again it could have been much much better.

Two account bets.
First up was Qalinas, 4pt win @ 2/1 (B.O.G. paid 5/2)
This horse was thought to be well weighted in his first time handicap and with a clear round was expected to take all the beating.
We were on course where there were many whispers for Rajamand as the race approached resulting in this horse being very well supported.

Qalinas touched 7/2 on course but was backed back in to 5/2 at the off.

He raced freely in the front pair and was always travelling smoothly. He took a clear lead with 3 to jump and was already trading well odds on.
He seemed to hit a soft spot of ground on landing after jumping 2 out and although he started to hang slightly he traded at 1.03. Still a length or so jumping the last but he tired in the last 100 yards to be nailed in the run in by Kadouchski.

Very frustrating to have another account bet trade so short and look all over the winner again but you have to take the rough with the smooth.

Our second bet was better.

Far View, 3pt win @ 3/1 is one of George Baker's who was fancied to show a lot more today.
Not an easy horse, he was fitted with cheekpieces in a bid to liven him up somewhat.

Another one of George's to be well supported he went off a very well backed 15/8 favourite.

He broke well from his poor draw and was pushed into an early lead.
He was kicked on into a clear lead with just over a furlong to go and although Loyal Royal close on him on the run in he never looked likely to be caught, running out a winner by just under a length.

The info from the Baker stable rarely lets us down and one member emailed in to say that it is worth the subscription fee alone!

So, another decent day where the info was spot on and really close to a nice double.

Of our 15 bets in February, 5 have won with 5 finishing second.
Three of these seconds (Kingsmere 1.04, Ackertac 1.18, Qalinas 1.03) have all traded very short without winning.

No point moaning about that though as luck does tend to come and go and if we are over 30 points in profit for February and still classing it as an unlucky month it says something.

We are hopeful of a bet tomorrow but with lots of rain forecast its not certain.

We are looking at a couple of ante post bets for Cheltenham and a possible Grand National bet which we may release on Sunday. Again, not certain but probable.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 23 February 2011

Another close one

One account bet today, a close run thing.

Ackertac, 1.5pt e/w @ 15/2 was fancied to put in a big run after a poor run last time.
There were excuses for his last run and previously he was brought down when going well. A place was the minimum that was expected by connections today

Well backed all day, he went off at 11/2, touching as low as 9/2 five minutes before the off.

He was always in the front rank and travelling well. He took a clear lead with 4 to jump and with 2 to jump was trading at 1.18 on Betfair. It was looking like we had landed another nice touch!

However, Seren Rouge rallied well and Al Co started to make good progress.
It was a war of attrition with Al Co getting on top close home to win by just over a length. Ackertac finished second.

Another very good run and a small profit on the day but another bet where it could have been much much better.

We remain over 30 points up for February though and it now looks certain to be out 4th winning month on the trot.

Its unlikely there will be a bet tomorrow but there should be one on Friday as well as Saturday.

We hope to have a nice one to look forward to a week on Friday as well, ground permitting.

Thanks for reading

Monday, 21 February 2011

Muddy Monday

One account bet today; a poor one.

Old Wigmore, 3pt win @ 13/8 (B.O.G. returned 11/4) is a course and distance winner and was fancied to go in again today in a lesser race than he contested last time out.

He drifted to 11/4 before the off as the money came for the front two in the market.
He was sent off into a joint lead and was travelling well enough although Choc was clearly going well in behind on Simply Wings.
Our selection was headed with three to jump and faded from there to finish a very remote 4th.
A poor run. Connections reported after the race that he hated the ground and was never really going well.

A few things to look forward to this week although we are only expecting 3 or 4 bets. Lets hope they are good ones!

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 20 February 2011

Another great Saturday, just!

Lots of information flying around yesterday but we decided to stick to just one strong account bet.

Mille Chief, 6pt win @ 7/4 (B.O.G. paid 15/8) landed a maximum bet for us last month and in the middle of the week it looked like we would be going maximum here again.
However, the race cut up badly down to just 5 runners and for one reason or another we concluded there wasn't enough value to justify a maximum bet.

Money had come for Silviniaco Conti all day and that one was supported down to 7/4 favourite at the off, hence the drift in our selection.

Come the race Mille Chief travelled supremely well in the middle of the pack and moved up to second place on the bit approaching 2 out. Already trading around 1.4 it looked as though he would win in the same fluent style as he did last month when landing our max bet.
He took the lead and we were expecting him to go clear but Celestial Halo wouldn't go away and rallied really well and took up the lead again.
Fortunately for us, Celestial Halo made a real hash of the last, handing the upper hand back to our selection.
It was nip and tuck all the way to the line as Mille Chief prevailed by the minimum distance.

Possibly a lucky winner but in all fairness we have deserved some luck with a few going against us already this year.

That winner puts us just over 35 points in profit for February and just over 50 points in profit so far this year.

Lots of discussion after the race on how good or bad the performance by Mille Chief was and if it was true Champion Hurdle form.
Feedback from connections was that he pulled a bit too hard in the early stages and he didn't get on too well with the tacky ground.

Given that Silviniaco Conti was so well supported (it turns out connections believe this horse wants 3 miles) this could be a much better performance than it looks on paper.
True, Mille Chief only won by a nose but the front pair were 18 lengths clear of the third horse home and it may well be that Celestial Halo overachieved slightly.

If the ground is ok on the first day of the festival there is every chance we will be sticking with Mille Chief for an account bet on the day.
We are slightly biased though as he has now landedthe two biggest bets of the year for us this year.
We also have a small ante post bet at 110 on the exchanges ourselves!!

Thanks for reading

Friday, 18 February 2011

The dreaded bounce...

One strong account bet for us today that was sent out last night as we expected it to be well backed.

Walkon, 4pt win @ 5/1 was an account bet for us a few weeks ago when running a great race and coming second at 12/1.
He was a bet last Saturday but the unfortunate incidents there saw to the abandonment of the meeting.
The six days in between and the rain was thought to be a further advantage and the main concern from connections was the possibility of the 'bounce factor'

Because of this and the fact there were just 15 runners prompted us to go win only.

As expected, he was very well backed down to 3/1 at the off.
As feared, he did appear to 'bounce'.

He never seemed to be travelling too well and you could call the fact he wouldn't win with almost a mile to run.

A disappointing run but there was always a chance of this.
However, if we continue to back 3/1 chances at 5/1 we will be fine in the long run, as our results show!

We were hoping for a maximum bet tomorrow but the race has cut up badly and it looks like the price won't be right.
However, we will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Caught a good one

One account bet for us today, our first one of the working week.

Round Turn, 3pt win @ 5/2 was thought to be on a fair mark in his first handicap.
There had been plenty of money on early and there was a chance of a drift before the off.

He drifted to 3/1 around ten minutes before the off but was then supported again and went off a well backed 13/8 chance.

He broke well and settled in 3rd on the rails. He was pushed through a gap to go into the lead with a couple of furlongs to run and was soon trading around 1.4 on the exchanges.
Unfortunately for us, Mrs Neat was travelling very well in behind. She went by to win by a fairly comfortable half a length.

A decent run by our bet but we ran into a decent winner on the day.

Lots to look forward to over the next 3 days or so.
We definately have a bet on Friday and are hoping for a maximum bet on Saturday.
This is price dependant though and we won't have a max bet if the price isn't right. Fingers crossed for a decent price!

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 13 February 2011

Not that 'good again'

One account bet yesterday, reduced from two after the desperate scenes at Newbury.

Good Again, 3pt win @ 4/1 didn't get any kind of a run last time out and she was fancied to compensate for that with a clear run.
She drifted slightly to 9/2 at the off and was held up near the rear of the pack in the early stages of the race.
She made some progress with a couple of furlongs to run but didn't get the clearest of runs. She closed on the leaders inside the final furlong but looked to be hanging and was never going to reach the front rank.
She finished 6th, beaten only a length or so but can't really be classed as an unlucky loser.

She will probably win a race of this kind soon but we might let her win before we back her again.

Some decent stuff to come this week and Cheltenham is just over 4 weeks away now.

A small reminder that we still have a 33% bonus to all memberships of 3 months or over until 31st March.
Existing members can extend their membership and take advantage of this as well if they wish to extend their membership.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 11 February 2011

Another cracking day!

Another day, another decent plot bet landed!

We ended up having two account bets - reasons to follow.

First up was Pere Blanc, 3pt win @ 9/2.
This runner, similar to Jack's Revenge earlier in the week, had shown little in his three runs to date. Stepped up in trip and first time in a handicap that was expected to change today.
This was a Bet365 bonus race and members were advised to place their bet with them as a winner would bring a free bet in the 4.10.

Backed down to 10/3 at the off the result was never really in question. The official form line probably says it better than we could...
"took keen hold, chased leaders, went 2nd and challenged 7th, led soon after 3 out, came effortlessly clear from next"
Pere Blanc won by 15 lengths.

That gave us a free bet in the 4.10.
There was a word earlier in the day that Dark Ben, 3pt win @ 9/2 had been showing a bit more at home recently and if he could get an easy lead he could run a big race.

The word wasn't strong enough to be an account bet but as the majority of our members have a Bet365 account we sent a message out.

Dark Ben did get an easy lead and jumped well throughout.
He wasn't really under too much pressure and came home a winner by four and a half lengths.

The added bonus of this is that we will also bet a free 3pt bet in the first Bet365 bonus race of the day tomorrow!

So a great day today and we are now 34 points in profit for February.
Our account bets have been placed 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, Upl, 1st, 1st, 1st.

There will be at least one account bet tomorrow with a possible interesting runner lined up at Warwick.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 8 February 2011

Huge gamble landed

Two account bets since our last blog.
One poor, one very good!

Striker Torres, 3pt win @ 5/2 was fancied to lead all the way on a track he loves.
He had been running against some fairly decent horses for the grade and with an easy lead he was expected to be hard to catch.

Missing the break wasn't part of the plan!
He was rushed up to take the lead but was never really at ease and after three furlongs it was clear we were on a loser.
He was eased once headed inside the final furlong and finished 6th of 7 runners.
Our first poor run so far this month. One member likened the run to Fernando Torres performance on Sunday!

Much better stuff today with a massive gamble landed.

Jack's Revenge, 3pt win @ 4/1 was a proper George Baker lined up gamble.
The yard won this race last year when we had a 5pt win bet on another huge gamble landed by The Blue Dog.
Jack's Revenge had only been seen on the racecourse three times and shown absolutely nothing. That doesn't always matter though, as we know.

Going off a very heavily backed 5/4 favourite he was soon racing in the front rank.
Tony pushed him into the lead with half a mile to run and although we were given a few nervous moments when he didn't immediately pull away, he stayed on well enough under a strong ride to win by just over three lengths.

Few yards can pull off a gamble as well as George Baker's yard and our contact there has done us proud over the past few years.
Now they have moved to Whitsbury Manor Stables and the horses are starting to settle in there is a lot to look forward to from this yard over the next few months.
They have some decent horses this year and should make a real impact over the Spring and Summer.

There will probably be a bet tomorrow and it may well be sent out early again as there could be another gamble to look out for. We will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 6 February 2011

The big one is coming!

One account bet on Saturday, hitting the bar again.

Minella Four Star, 2pt e/w @ 10/1 had been off the track for a long time but was fit and ready to do himself justice. A place was the minimum that was expected.

Going off a 9/1 chance he quickly took the lead and jumped well in the main despite a bad mistake at the 10th.
He was joined for the lead with 2 to jump by Blazing Bailey but rallied well.
The Alan King yard thought the steep rise in weights for Blazing Bailey might stop him and we were hoping they were correct but he stayed on better than our selection in the run in to win by two lengths.

Another good run and a profit on the day but again it could have been so much better.

Walkon, Sebastiano, Kingsmere and now Minella Four Star have all run very well in the last couple of weeks without quite winning.
With a bit more luck we could have been at least 50 points better off!

We certainly have the feeling that a big day or two is just around the corner though. Lets hope we are right...

Thanks for reading

Friday, 4 February 2011

1.02 beaten

One account bet today and you may be able to tell by the title it was a close one!

Kingsmere, 2pt win @ 9/2 was thought to be well handicapped now taking a much needed step up in distance.

He went off a 5/1 chance but was always travelling smoothly and was clearly going the best of the pack with a mile to run. He continued to make smooth progress and was trading well odds on with 4 furlongs to run.
He took the lead with about 3 to jump and but Pie At Midnight battled on very gamely and regained the lead with 2 to jump. He idled in front though and our selection,  Kingsmere regained the lead, only to be caught again by Pie At Midnight on the line and go down by a short head.

Our selection traded at 1.02 in running (50/1 on.) Needless to say, not many get beaten when they trade that short so we can consider ourselves unlucky.
Once again, the info was spot on we just ran into one today that battled a bit too well for our liking!

An interesting day tomorrow and there will almost certainly be at least one account bet.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 3 February 2011

Slow motion 3rd

One account bet for us today, a disappointing one.

Mr Emirati, 3pt win @ 5/2 is a lightly raced horse who was fancied to improve beyond his rivals today.

Backed down to 2/1 at the off, he was held up at the back for the early part of the race.
He made some progress with half a mile to go but made little ground as the whole field seemed to be running in slow motion.
He plugged on to finish 3rd but never looked like winning in all honesty and must go down as a disappointing bet.

Elsewhere we have a couple of new contacts we are very excited about.
We won't be releasing their info as account bets just yet as we need to thoroughly test them but the early signs are very promising.
More on this over the next few weeks.

We also have a special offer available until 31st March 2011.
Full details are here...

There will almost certainly be an account bet tomorrow.

Thanks for reading