Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Betting percentages

One of the most important areas of gambling is also one of the least understood.

So what is a percentage in betting and why do you need to know about them?

If you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will come up heads and a 50% chance it will come up tails. Both these outcomes added together = 100%

Likewise, if you throw a dice there is a 16.66% chance of throwing a six. 16.66*6 = 100%

So, how does this impact on betting?
Betting odds are simply a percentage chance of an outcome of a race. Therefore, an even money chance in a horse race has a 50% chance of winning the race. The same chance of a coin coming up heads. In a 100% book. (We will come to this later)

Bookmakers show odds, rather than percentages.
Decimal odds are now commonly used on line and these are very easy to work out from a percentage.
If you work a horse out to have a 25% change of winning a race simply divide 100/25 and you get 4. Therefore the decimal odds of this are 4, the fractional odds are 3/1.
A 3/1 chance is 25% of the total book.

If there were 4 runners in a race and they were all priced 3/1, the percentage of the book would be 100%. However, if bookmakers did this they would never show a profit.
They are more likely to go
2/1 (33.3%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)

This is called an overround book because the total percentage of the book is 108.3%. This is 8.3% in the book makers favour as you would need to stake £108.30 on the race to guarantee getting £100 back.

Percentages are essential as well as knowing how to calculate percentages because the bigger the overround book you are betting in, the more money you will lose.
There are some horse race meetings (Kempton in the evening for instance) where the percentage book is as much as 140%. Punters are still asking to 'take a price' in this instance when the odds as massively against them.

So, if you are in the bookies for an opening show for a greyhound race is 6/4, 2/1, 3/1, 3/1, 7/2 and 9/2 don't take a price. Its almost certain that at least five of these prices will increase as they simply have to for the bookmakers credibility if nothing else. (see the popular prices below and work this book out!)

Hopefully this all makes sense. If not, please feel free to get in touch with us. It really is very important that if you are having a bet you understand percentages.

Some of the most popular ones are:
1/4 (80%)
1/3 (75%)
1/2 (66.6%)
1/1 (50%)
6/4 (40%)
2/1 (33.3)
3/1 (25%)

Friday, 20 November 2009

How many bets?

How many bets are enough bets?

We recently had a member not renew because we don't have enough account bets for them.
Fair enough, each to their own.

We only bet when there is a decent reason to do so. Overall the odds have to be in our favour. That way in the long run you will win.

Walk into any local bookies and you will see people betting on every race they see. In these days of saturation coverage there are barely two minutes between either a horse race, dog race, virtual race or some numbers draw.
On the majority of these you are betting (in a shop) to around 120%, sometimes higher.
That means that on average you will get £100 pounds back for every £120 you stake. By betting on every race just for the sake of it you simply cannot win. Fact.

You have to wait until the time is right to have a bet. Let the bets find you if you like.

That takes discipline, one of the most important things in anyones betting armoury.

If you find yourself betting too often, try keeping a spreadsheet of all the bets you place and analyse it. You will probably be shocked but become more disciplined.

Now, we aren't against a fun bet now and then but just keep it sensible. We sometimes bet on silly things like x-factor, sports personality of the year (David Haye at 25/1 btw) but to very small stakes. That way its a bit of fun but doesn't have a serious impact on the overall profit.
We do keep a track of all bets though, even the fun ones.

Whatever you do, enjoy it but try to make a profit as well!

Good luck

Thursday, 8 October 2009

Good and bad runs

One of the things people struggle with most in their quest to become a successful gambler is how to deal with good or bad runs.
We often find that people can even class a bad week as a bad run!

Unfortunately, good and bad runs are all part and parcel of betting and anyone who tells you otherwise isn't being totally truthful.

So what should you do?
Well, the first advice is don't get carried away if you are in a good run or a bad run. Stick to your staking plan. People on a good run sometimes get carried away and overstake in the hope for sudden riches. This can work but it can also turn a good run into a bad run in a matter of a few bets.
Similarly, if you are a bad run, don't get downhearted and dramatically reduce your stakes. This is just as difficult because in a bad run confidence can suffer and you may not be able to see where the next winner is coming from.
However, if you completely change your staking plan in a bad run getting the losses back can take a lot longer.

A good example of this is shown in our October results.
Three of our first four bets ran well but didn't win. (The other was awful!) However, we had some very strong news about Commanche Raider on the 6th October and made him our strongest bet of the month. He won, eased down and we were back in profit. If we had been ultra cautious because we were losing and were worried about losing more we would have only played 1pt e/w and have regretted it.

The moral of the story is.
Winning and losing runs are all part of the game. Get a staking plan you are comfortable with and if it works in the long term (we are over 150 points in front this year and almost 300 points last year) stick to it.
Be brave and at the same time, don't get carried away!

Good luck!

Thursday, 20 August 2009

Luck in running?

Hmmm, was it a bad ride on Changingoftheguard or sheer bad luck?
Judging from the emails we have had, many of our members feel it was a bad ride. Whatever, it certainly cost us as it would certainly have won with a clear run.

We also had desperate luck in running with Admin earlier in the month but these things do even out in the long run.

We had a good bet on Najd a couple of weeks ago and at first glace he seemed to win well. Watching the race again (we always watch every race at least 3 times) the second had some terrible luck in running.

Another one for the notebook!