Wednesday, 29 September 2010

Heavy going...

One small account bet for us today on a very wet day.

Mishtaag, 1pt e/w @ 11/1 was fancied to show a good deal of improvement after a long time away from the track. Clive Brittain's runners are now starting to run a bit better after a very quiet spell.
Stakes were kept very small as there is plenty of rain around.

Mishtaag was very well supported, down to a tight 6/1 at the off.
Seb bounced him out in front and he bagged a nice rails spot. He led until about 3 furlongs out and then found very little and faded from there.
The feedback from the yard was that he hated the ground and was never travelling well on it.
He is a much nicer horse than this and may yet run again this season if the ground is suitable.

As we mentioned earlier, there is lots of rain around.
Tomorrow is forecast to be drier but Friday looks set to be very wet and we will be playing very carefully until things settle down.
There is every likelyhood there won't be a bet until Saturday at the earliest if the ground does turn out as expected.

If there is no bet tomorrow we will finish September 16 points in profit.
However, its been a very difficult month and not a very enjoyable one.
We had a fantastic treble early on in the month. Since then, more selections have run poorly than well but it is a very difficult time of the year.
To have a run like we have had recently but still be profitable at the end of the month is pleasing though.

The most important thing is profit and September will be our 7th profitable month from the 9 so far in 2010.
2008 showed 10 winning month from 12 and 2009 showed 9 winning months from 12.

We aren't quite at the level of overall profits of previous years but are still well in front with 98 points profit so far in 2010.

Many of the 'major services' have struggled this year for some reason.
Given what they charge and the lack of transparency from many of them we are still extremely proud of what we offer and our performance so far.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 28 September 2010

The name of the game

One account bet for us today, over the jumps at Sedgefield.

Southerness, 4pt win @ 2/1 - B.O.G paid 11/4 - was well fancied on his first run for the Pipe yard.
He had had problems with his jumping in the past but has been well schooled and was thought to be much better than these, with a clear round.
The key words there were with a clear round!

In a very strange market he was well supported down to 6/4 before support came in for Ashammer (4/1 into 2/1) causing Southerness to drift out to 11/4.

Jumping is the name of the game and Southerness didn't jump very well at all.
He jumped a couple early on a little high until looking to get the hang of things. However, he all but unseated at the third last and his chance was gone from there.

The official form line of "mid-division, going well when stumbled badly and lost place 3 out, in rear, rallied after next, stayed on from last" is probably a little generous but it would have been a much closer race barring that bad mistake.

We have nothing lined up for tomorrow yet but one of our best yards has a few runners and we will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 26 September 2010

Thank you Frankie

A much better day yesterday although we were made to wait for it.

We have three account bets, including Poet's Voice, advised at 16/1 on Thursday morning.

First up was Sunny Game, 2pt win @ 4/1.
It was thought this lightly weighted horse would relish the ground and the step up in trip and could be a bit better than his rivals.
He was dropped in at the rear of the pack but asked to make some progress with 3 furlongs to run. There wasn't a great deal of response in a race where the runners looked to be running in slow motion in the latter stages.
He plodded on but was never dangerous.

Second bet was Judicious, 3pt win @ 7/4. B.O.G. returned 9/4
This horse was another who was expected to relish the softer ground. He had been given a nice rest since his only run and had matured since then.
He was very disappointing, never looking the winner at any stage of the race.

The day was starting to take the all too familiar look of much of the last three weeks.

However, we had one bet to run.
Poet's Voice, 2pt e/w @ 16/1 was sent out to members on Thursday morning.
We knew Canford Cliffs was a very doubtful runner and needed to make the most of this opportunity before news got out.
An hour or so after our message the news broke that Canford Cliffs was a non runner and Poet's Voice was trading around 7/1.
The yard have spent a lot of time getting Poet's Voice to learn to settle more in his races and this looked a fantastic betting opportunity, especially for an each way bet.

He settled very well near the rear of the pack and Frankie started to bring him with a sustained run inside the last 2 furlongs.
He always looked like he was going to get there but left it until the very last moment, getting up by a nose on the line.

A fantastic ride from Frankie and, even though we are blowing our own trumpet here a little, some great information knowing Canford Cliffs wouldn't run - thus taking advantage of a market that was massively in our favour.

That nose victory turned our month around completely, pushing us back into a profit of 22 points for September.

Before we go, we must mention the amazing performance from Frankel.
Some will say he hasn't beaten very much to date but you can only beat what's in front of you and he has done this in most impressive style.
He looks every inch a Guineas winner in the making.

Just a word of warning though for those considering backing him for the Derby. Henry Cecil is far from certain that he will stay the Derby distance, making him poor value at 5/2 or so in our book.
A similar price for the Guineas though looks very fair.

It will probably continue to be fairly quiet this week.
It is a very tricky time of the year as the flat season approaches its end, with the ground looking quite changeable.

We will continue to pick our punches and stake sensibly.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 23 September 2010

When your luck is out...

One account bet for us today, a desperately unlucky loser.
Galpin Junior, 2pt win @ 7/2 had been an unlucky loser in his last two runs and was now felt to be well handicapped.
We ended our message to members with the words "... with a bit of luck in running he should be bang there at the business end"
If only we had a bit of luck in running!

He was well supported right down to 13/8 at off time.
When the gates opened he missed the break and came out two or three lengths behind the other runners. Never a good thing in a 5 furlong sprint...
He started to make good progress with a couple of furlongs to go but needed to be switched for a run. He was running on very well at the finish but was again denied a run up the rails and finished 3rd, beaten just over half a length.

There is no doubt this horse was about 3 or 4 lengths better than we saw today but these things are a part of racing.
One for the notebook is all we can say.

Early this morning we recieved notification that Canford Cliffs was a very unlikely runner in the QE2 stakes at Ascot so we sent an account bet out of 2pt e/w, Poets Voice @ 16/1.
Sure enough, Canford Cliffs has been pulled out and the race is down to 8 runners.
Lets hope they all go to post for each way purposes...

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 19 September 2010

Two poor weeks

Two account bets for us yesterday and still no change in fortunes.

First up was a horse we had backed before, Rimth 3pt win @ 2/1.
This horse has run three good races so far this season and is arguably unlucky to have only won one race. She continues to improve at home and was fancied to win this.

She was well supported down to 11/8 by off time but ran a very flat race. She was far too keen early and failed to pick up as expected, although she didn't get the clearest of runs.
A disappointing run.

Second was a horse we have been waiting a while for.
Madawi, 2pt e/w at 8/1 is thought of as a possible Guineas horse for next season. He was fancied first time out although not fully wound up for that race and was much fitter today.

There was a rush of money for this horse by off time and he went off the 4/1 second favourite.
He completely missed the break and was he was at the rear of the pack for much of the race. He didn't get the best of runs with around 2 furlongs to run and was switched to the outside of the pack. He really picked up well inside the last 100 yards to be a fast finishing 4th. The worst place to finish for an each way bet!

Considering the plan was to break well and race up with the pace as he did last time this was a good run although no good to us financially.
If he is good enough to run in the Guineas or not is open to question. He will probably run in the Racing Post Trophy next and we will know a lot more after that race.

Its been a really poor two weeks with 36 points lost in this period.

Unfortunately bad runs do happen. They are part and parcel of racing. We have to stick at it and work through it.
Nothing has changed. Our sources are the same but many of the horses are just not running as expected.
Most are being well backed - 2/1 into 11/8 and 8/1 into 4/1 yesterday for instance.

We will keep at it and hopefully turn things around.
We will be picking our punches carefully this week as we will desperately be trying to get back into profit for September.

September 2009 was a losing month for us but October 2009 was our best month to date with over 100 points profit in that month.

Although this year hasn't been quite as prolific as the last two years we are still 70 points in profit to date. This time last year we were 150 points up.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 16 September 2010

No change in fortunes

One account bet today, a very disappointing one.

We have been waiting for Ardent, 5pt win @ 9/4 to run for a while now.
She is a promising filly and showed why she is highly thought of by winning in good style last time out. Todays handicapo mark looked more than fair for this filly who is thought of as potentially group class.

She was well backed into 6/4 by off time and bounced out in front pretty much as soon as the stalls opened.
She travelled well in front until about 300 yards from home when she found very little and dropped back. She was eased from there.
We don't know the reason for the poor run at this stage but she just didn't run her race today. Something was amiss as she is a lot better than this run.

There is a good chance of a bet tomorrow and there should be at least one bet on Saturday.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 14 September 2010


Two account bets today, both running very poorly.

We started off with Glendaragh, 2pt win @ 7/2.
There was a good word from our Irish contact for this one who was said to be working well at home now after a fairly easy introduction to racing in his first run. The ground was a slight concern so we kept stakes low.

He broke prominently but race extremely green throughout, particularly round the bend where he lost his action somewhat.
He wasn't given a particularly hard race once it was clear he couldn't win and came home in sixth place.

Our second bet was Royal Rock, 2pt win @ 11/4.
He had been out of action for a while after gaining an abscess on his lung but is now back in the swing of things and looking much better at home.
He goes well fresh so the time away from the track was no real problem.

He travelled very in behind the main pack but was bumped into as the rest of the runners jockied for position with a couple of furlongs to run.
He looked to go slightly lame from there and was nursed home.

A disappointing day overall and we have gone from what looked to be a superb month to a very slight profit of just one point.
Hoping for a big change in fortune soon. Hopefully this week as we have a couple lined up for later in the week!

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 12 September 2010

St Leger Day

Two small account bets yesterday but unfortunately no winners.

We started off with Bounty Box, 2pt win @ 2/1.
The general feeling was that if she handled the track she would win.
She won easily in this grade last time out but Goodwood is a difficult track and not every horse takes to it.
Unfortunately for us, she didn't!
She was never travelling and simply hated the track.

A lovely filly though and she may have one more run before the season ends. We won't give up on her and may get our stake back next time.

Our second account bet was Marzante, 2pt win @2/1.
Roger Charlton's horses are in fine form and this one was thought to be well handicapped after just two runs.
He was well supported down to 11/8 and looked to be in a position to challenge with a furlong to run but didn't find much of a change of gear from there. He could only manage 3rd.
Possibly the horse wants further but its more likely he isn't quite as good as connections thought he was.

A very disappointing week overall after a superb start to the month.

There are no account bets today but we already have one or two to look forward to in the week ahead.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 10 September 2010

Doncaster day three

Two account bets for us today. Both ran well but frustratingly failed to win.

We started of with Supercharged, 3pt win @ 2/1.
Chris Wall's filly is thought to be quite classy and had been given two months off to continue to mature after he decent debut 3rd.
She was quite excitable on the way to post but continued to be well backed, starting at 6/4.
In the race she was also a bit lit up and was ridden closer to the pace than planned. She tracked the leader and struck the lead with a furlong to run. Unfortunately for us, Carrignavar was travelling ominously well and our filly gave him a great lead through.
Both horses drew 10 lengths clear of the rest of the pack but we could only manage 2nd, beaten just under a length.

Our second account bet was in the Doncaster Cup.
Motrice, 2pt win @ 9/2 was receiving a handy weight allowance and is improving all the time.
The cut in the ground and step up in distance were also expected to be an advantage for this filly today.

She went off at 4/1 and was settled in rear for the majority of the race. She was niggled along to make some ground inside the last half mile but was a tricky ride and edged left slightly.
She didn't get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong as she was starting to stay on well but thats no real excuse for her not winning.
She finished 3rd, beaten about a length and a half. She probably would have been second with a clear run but either way it was a 2 point loss for us.

Frustrating results today but pretty much all our account bets continue to run very well.
Of the 10 account bets we have had in September, 3 have won; 3 have finished second; 2 have finished 3rd and 2 have been unplaced.

Overall the info is spot on but things haven't been quite falling for us.
That said, we remain 9 points in profit for September although we were 25 points to the good at close of play on Saturday.

There will almost certainly be an account bet tomorrow, a day where there are a lot of interesting runners.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 9 September 2010

Doncaster day two

One account bet today; a disappointing one.

Miss Zooter, 3pt e/w @ 8/1 was a strong account bet for us.
A good winner when an account bet for us last time out she was fancied to continue her winning run today.
A step up in class today, but it was hoped she would take it in her stride as connections believe she is a group horse in the future.

She was well backed overnight but drifted back to 8/1 on course.

She  missed the break slightly but was soon racing mid division although moving well enough.
Switched to the outside to make her run with 3 furlongs to go she found very little and could only finish mid division.

Its possible she was racing on the slowest part of the track but more likely that she was thought of as better than she actually is.

Its been a poor week so far after a superb Saturday but we are still 14 points in profit for the month so far and this is the first horse that has actually run badly.

Its possible there will be an account bet tomorrow but not certain at this stage.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 8 September 2010

Doncaster day one

One small bet for us today.

Group Therapy, 2pt win @ 3/1 was fancied to gain a well earned win after often getting over excited at the start.
It was a difficult race on a very trappy card so we kept stakes very sensible.

He was quite well supported although the fact he went off 15/8 favourite was more to do with the withdrawl of Tax Free shortly before race time.
He was held up and looked set to be in a good position to challenge, making good headway inside the last two furlongs. Unfortunately he didn't quicken as hoped and could only manage 3rd, beaten just over a length.

We have a strong account bet at Doncaster for tomorrow that we have already sent out to members as we don't expect the price to last.
We are also looking at potentially two more bets but will know more about those in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 5 September 2010

SimpleBet Sunday

One small account bet for us today.

Common Touch, 3pt win @ 2/1 was fancied to follow up a win when an account bet for us six weeks ago.
He has continued to improve for that run but was in a very tricky looking handicap so stakes were kept low.

He drifted slightly to 9/4 by off time as support came in for three other horses in the race.
He was held up in the middle of the pack but never looked to be travelling well enough to get close enough to land a blow. He still looked pretty green in running and although this wasn't the best of performances, isn't one to give up on.

Its unlikely there will be a bet tomorrow as the racing is pretty poor but we will know more in the morning.

Some great racing towards the end of the week with the St Leger meeting though and we are looking forward to one bet there in particular. Hopefully the rain will stay away and the going will remain stable.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 4 September 2010

Wonderful Saturday!

Some punters believe Saturday is the worst day to have a bet for punters. It wasn't for us today.

We had 3 account bets, which is rare for us.

First up was Kansai Spirit, 3pt win @ 4/1
This was a Bet365 special offer race where if you back the winner at 4/1 or above you get a free bet to the same value in the next special offer race.
We always urge all members to open an account with Bet365 if they don't have one and this is just one of the reasons. If you don't already have one, join direct from this link and we give you 2 weeks free membership. This is valid for new and existing members.

Anyway, back to the first bet.
Kansai Spirit was thought to be very well handicapped. He has improved tons for being gelded and continues to improve.Everything was in his favour today and a winning run was expected.
The 4/1 we suggested was soon snapped up and we were ready to settle at 7/2 but he drifted back to 4/1 on course.
He was kept in the middle of the pack and always travelled well. He started to make sustained progress with around half a mile to run and was driven into a lead inside the final 2 furlongs. From there it became a battle and we envisaged a third account bet finishing 2nd in the trot. However, he battled on very well though to stay on and win by just under a length.

Our second bet was also at Haydock.
Activate, 1pt e/w @ 8/1  was fancied to show improved form now on better ground and stepped up in trip. This was another horse who was felt to be well handicapped.

This was another horse who was held up for the majority of the race. He made good progress inside the last half mile, similar to Kansai Spirit  and hit the front with around 300 yards to run. From there he was never likely to be caught and won well by a length and a half.

Finally we had Walcot Square, 3pt win @ 3/1.
He went slightly lame last time out and had been dropped by the handicapper for that run. Roger Charlton's runners are really starting to run well (as is often the case around this time of the season) and a trip to the winners enclosure was expected tonight.

He was well backed down to 15/8 by off time but never really travelled well throughout the race.
Similar to the 2 bets above though he started to make sustained progress inside the final 2 furlongs under a very strong ride from Stevie Drowne. He started to get on top inside the final furlong and won by a hard driven neck.

A superb day with 3 winners from 3 account bets.
A £10 treble would have paid £1800!!

Thanks to all the members who have already emailed us with comments on todays bets.
Emails are always appreciated if they are from a good day or a bad day.

Overall we showed a profit of 31 points on the day and today has shot us 25 points in profit for September.
Our 5 bets this month have had 2 seconds (both beaten under a length) and 3 winners.

There will almost certainly be at least one bet tomorrow.

We have an awful lot to look forward to before the end of the flat season as well as a lot already lined up for when the NH season starts properly.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 3 September 2010

Still close, still no cigar!

Another good run from our account bet today but unfortunately only another second.

Smarty Socky, 3pt win @ 11/4 - B.O.G. returned 3/1 - was fancied to make up for a slightly unlucky defeat on Monday.
The step up in trip was expected to help this horse who often has a habit of starting slowly.

He drifted slightly to 3/1 at off time and was settled near the rear of the pack for the first few furlongs of the race, to help him get the trip.
Brought to the outside he started to make good progress with around 300 yards to go and looked set to kick on and put the race to bed from there. Unfortunately for us, Dhualar Dhar came out of the pack to assert inside the final 75 yards.
Maybe Smarty Socks didn't quite see the trip out or maybe he was just beaten by a better horse on the day.

Another good run and as we said on Wednesday, the info was spot on but you can't win them all.

A couple of interesting races tonight at Kempton.
7.15, Azzoom has improved and has a decent chance tonight. Should be placed at least although the favourite will take some beating.
9.15, Proud Times continues to improve at home and also has a decent chance.
Kempton isn't our favourite track to bet at but we may play a very small each way double.

There will almost certainly be a bet tomorrow.

Thanks for reading


Wednesday, 1 September 2010

Close but no cigar

Almost a great start to the month but not quite.

One account bet today. Azaday, 3pt win @ 5/2. - The 5/2 only lasted 10 minutes after our message was sent so we have recorded it as 9/4.
She was fancied to run a big race today after running well all season, especially last time out when she came second, finishing a long way clear of the 3rd horse home.
The drop back in trip wasn't expected to be a problem with the stiff uphill finish expected to suit.

The price went quickly but this was more due to the fact that it was only available with Bet365 than anything to do with us.
She was backed right up to race time though and went off 15/8 favourite.
She was dropped in at the back and never travelling particularly well but started to make ground on the outside with a couple of furlongs to run. She continued to make ground all the way to the line but never quite got there in what looked like an agonising slow motion finish!
She was beaten a head, finishing 5 lengths clear of the 3rd horse home. A similar run to last time out.

Slightly unlucky with her not getting up but these things happen. The main thing is that the information from the yard was spot on, as it was on Monday with Plaisterer.

Elsewhere there were a couple of mightly gambles landed.
Am I Blue was backed from 25/1 into 5/1 before winning by a massive 19 lengths.
Dean Coleman (apprentice) was due to ride this one but allegedly couldn't make the ride due to a dentist appointment. He was replaced by Richard Johnson who guided home a huge gamble.
Scott Ferguson has written a good blog post about this one...

At Lingfield, Paphos was backed into 10/1 from 20/1 before leading all the way.
Again, a huge improvement from his previous form was on show here from this horse from a shrewd yard.

It's a difficult situation with racing currently.
Many lower class horses are running for such poor prize money that the only option available to some yards and owners is to try to land a nice touch to pay the fees.
It's just a shame we weren't aware of any of these or they would have been an account bet!

There will probably be a bet tomorrow.

Thanks for reading