Saturday, 30 April 2011

Yet again, almost...

Very close to a decent winner again today.

We have 3 small account bets.

First up was Amadeus Denton, 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (B.O.G. returned 16/1)
We have been waiting for this one to run for a while now as he is showing all the right signs at home of being a decent prospect.
Connections were concerned by the potential bad draw but still fancied a place at minimum today.

He drifted before the off as many other horses were supported but was in the front rank from the off.
He made good progress on the outside inside the last 2 furlongs, hitting the front with a furlong to go.
A combination of running slightly green and being carried to the far rail by the eventual winner, Profile Star, meant our selection could only manage 2nd.
He traded odds on in running and although there was a stewards enquiry it was always unlikely he would be given the race.
Another frustrating run and that half a length he lost by would have made a huge difference to our month.

Our next 2 selections didn't run as well.

Our second bet of the day was Astrophysical Jet, 3pt win @ 3/1.
She is fancied to go on and be the big star of the sprinting scene this year and was expected to start the season in good style.

She went off an 11/4 chance but ran no race at all.
Its probably something went wrong and she may have finished lame as she will prove to be much better than this run.

Finally we had Legal Legacy, 2pt win @ 5/1.
This horse did us a few favours last season and put in a good run first time out this season despite not being fully fit.

He went off a 9/2 chance and was held up on the inside for the first half of the race.
He made some ground with 3 furlongs to run but it was clear to see that Imperial Djay was travelling ominously well. He went on to win the race well, showing the Ruth Carr yard are coming back to some form. (They also had a winner today in the shape of Dubai Dynamo)

So, a loss on the day and on the month.
It could have been a lot better with a bit more luck but 'could have beens' don't pay the bills.

Because we have had a poor run of late we will add a free month to any current members period when they renew.

Lots to look forward to in May and we are expecting to bounce back big time as the flat season gets fully underway.

Before we go it would be rude of us not to mention Frankel.
A stunning performance today. Possibly one of the finest performances we have seen for a while and we may not see better this season.

He may not stay the Derby distance and Henry has a decent alternative with World Domination but wherever Frankel runs next he will have plenty of people wanting to see him run.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

No change in fortunes

One account bet for us today.

Corr Point, 3pt win @ 11/4 needed his last run and was fancied to run a big race today on ground that suited with that run under his belt.

He was well supported down to 7/4 at the off (although there was a slight rule 4) he settled in behind the leader Not Til Monday.
He was travelling well for the majority of the race but when brought out to challenge he found little.

A poor run and one we have seen all too often of late.
Many of our selections are running the same way. Well backed, travel well and then find little when push comes to shove.
Its strange as nothing has changed, they just aren't running as expected.

Things will pick up. Hopefully very shortly as writing the blog when we haven't backed a winner is much more difficult than when we are flying!

Thanks for reading

Monday, 25 April 2011

Blank Bank Hol

Two account bets today but no joy.

First up was El Wasmi, 3pt win @ 5/1 (B.O.G. paid 6/1)
This is one of the yards nicest horses and big things are expected of him. Stakes were kept sensible as this could have been a hot race with many unknown horses in opposition.

He drifted to 6/1 before the off mainly due to heavy support for Amhran (7/1 into 11/2) and Regal Salute (11/2 into 3/1)
He missed the break slightly but was soon up in the front rank.
He ran green throughout, holding his head in the air for much of the race and wasn't given too much of a hard race finishing 3rd beating the two well supported horses.
This is a nice horse and the money will only be lent as he will come on a ton for this experience.

Second up was Beauchamp Yorker, 3pt win @ 5/2.
Another horse that is highly thought of at home, this lightly raced type was well fancied today.

Unfortunately he ran very green as well, especially round the bend, losing valuable ground.
He was switched to the far side on the run in and closed well but was never going to get there.

This is another horse that we probably won't give up on just yet.

A poor week or so for us means we are looking at a probable loss for April.
The next few days look to be quiet but we are hoping for a big turn around soon. As the season starts to settle down we will be staking slightly more and really expect a profitable few months ahead.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 24 April 2011

Weekend catchup

Four bets to catch up on for us over the weekend.

Two on Saturday.

First up was Wells Lyrical, 1pt e/w @ 20/1.
This horse needs good going and has slipped to a nice handicap mark.

He was backed down to 14/1 by the off and settled in second place for the majority of the race.
He was pushed along with a couple of furlongs to go but found the pace a bit too hot in the rain softened ground and although trading odds on to place in running, was beaten just over 2 lengths for 3rd place.

Second up was Premier Grand Cru, 1pt e/w @ 20/1.
This was another horse that needed fast going and was on a handy mark.

He took the short way round and was held up at the back early on. He made some nice progress to get after the leaders with 3 to jump. He stayed on well inside the last furlong but couldn't quite reel the leader in and finished 2nd, beaten a length.

Two bets on Sunday.

First up was Ragdollianna, 1pt e/w @ 17/2.
This mare was in her first handicap on a reasonable mark and expected to be bang there with a decent round of jumping.

She was a little too keen early on but made some nice headway as the turned up the hill.
The race turned into a bit of a sprint inside the last couple of furlongs and she was tapped for toe finishing 6th, beaten around 3 lengths from second place.

Second up was Dominant, 2pt win @ 5/1.
This was another horse making his handicap debut and is very highly thought of at home.

This was almost certainly the unluckiest loser of the day.
The form line was "close up, effort on inside when badly hampered 2f out, soon switched left, ridden and ran on to go 2nd near finish, unlucky"

A slight loss over the weekend but we can consider ourselves very unlucky.

A 20/1 chance beaten a length and a 5/1 chance that lost about 6 lengths in running and was beaten 2 lengths.
Also this month we have had Club Oceanic beaten 2 short heads, Rezwaan caught in the last 50 yards and Ancient Greece miss the break by 5 lengths to be beaten 2 lengths.

We always say that luck comes and goes in equal measures so we are certainly due some.

No point dwelling on the past though, we have to get on with it.

Quite a few bets lined up this week and we are confident of turning things round big time.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Not too hot today, Billie

One account bet today, a very disappointing one.

Chillie Billie, 6pt win @ 2/1 was fancied to run a very big race today.
He ran well first time up in a hot looking race and worked superbly with one of the stables recent winners recently.

We were tempted to go maximum stakes but as we knew nothing about the unraced horses we decided to play more sensibly.

There was a deluge of money for Chillie Billie up to the off as he was backed down to 5/4.
Gatepost (unraced) was also very well supported from an early 4/1 down to 15/8.

Our selection broke well and pulled hard. Given a bit of cover it was clear to see he wasn't travelling as expected after a couple of furlongs.
He was eased inside the final furlong to finish a disappointing 6th.

The feedback after the race was that he felt jarred on the hard going and was never travelling.
To be fair, he might not have beaten Gatepost anyway, as the winner looked fairly smart winning quite easily.

Poor stuff today but horses aren't machines and sometimes things don't go as expected.

No racing tomorrow so we will be back on Saturday.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 19 April 2011

Quick catch up

Apologies for the brief post... we are running behind with things slightly.

Two bets to catch up on.

Saturday we backed Humbie, 4pt win @ 4/1.
If he stayed the extra distance he was strongly fancied to put in a winning run.
Despite travelling well on the heels of the leaders with 4 to jump he appeared not to stay and finished 5th.

Yesterday we backed, Ancient Greece, 4pt win @ 13/2.
The yard were trying to land a nice touch with this one and looked set to do so with a furlong or so to run.
He was in the front rank throughout and hit the front with around 300 yards to run, trading at 2.02 on Betfair.
Unfortunately he didn't have the pace to kick on from there and finished down the pack.

We have had many nice touches from that yard though so can't complain when the odd one goes astray.

The weather is settling down and the flat season is really starting to get going.
We have a list of over 30 horses to look out for over the next 6 weeks or so and are expecting a very profitable run. - Fingers crossed!

Thanks for reading

Friday, 15 April 2011

Don't swallow your tongue!

One account bet for us today.

El Muqbil, 3pt win @ 5/2 was once thought of as a Derby prospect but didn't perform as expected last season.
He had wintered well and a big run was expected here.

He ran very poorly but was reported afterwards to have swallowed his tongue.

We will keep an eye on him for the future but he may be a horse that we wait until he wins before we follow him again.

One very interesting horse runs tomorrow.

World Domination goes in the 4.15. This one has been working with Frankel at home and the dogs have been barking about this for a long time.

Currently around 16/1 for the Derby, he will be interesting to watch.

One early account bet has been sent out to members for tomorrow.
We may well have another bet tomorrow as we are on course.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 13 April 2011

No go Kangaroo

One account bet for us today.

Kangaroo Court, 1.5pt e/w @ 14/1 was fancied to put in an improved performance today with the ground and trip in his favour.
He has been jumping better at home and was thougt to have a good chance of causing an upset here.
A similar profile to Sir Harry Ormesher who was an account bet for us a week or so ago.

In a reformed market he went off a 12/1 chance and was held up at the back of the field for the first three quarters of the race.
He made progress with a couple to jump but had to be switched, costing crucial momentum and could only stay on at one pace up the hill to finish 5th.
He would have had no chance with the winner even without having to switch but as he was beaten just under a length for 3rd it may well have made the difference for the place money.

A small loss on the day but another account bet that ran well, just not quite well enough.

Thanks for reading

Monday, 11 April 2011

Caught close home

One account bet for us today.

Rezwaan, 1pt e/w @ 8/1 has been running well, with connections hopeful to complete a hat trick today.
He is still considered well handicapped and a place was the minimum that was expected in this tight handicap.

He went off an 8/1 chance as money poured in for many of his opponents.

There was little pace on early and our selection made the early running, something that wasn't initially planned.
He kept a steady pace but kicked on with just over a furlong to run and traded 1.26 in running. He looked to have put the race to bed!

Unfortunately for us, he was caught inside the last 50 yards, finishing 3rd.

A small profit on the day for us and another account bet that ran well. Could have been much better but we won't complain.

A good week of racing ahead and hopefully our account bets will carry on performing as well as they have been.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 9 April 2011

Nice touch landed

One account bet for us today.

All eyes were on Aintree but there was a plot horse running at Bangor.
Hazy Tom, 3pt win @ 7/2 was strongly fancied by connections to land a nice touch today.
Our comments were "While all eyes are on Aintree the yard are trying to land a little touch with this one today. He won a point to point race two months ago and looks a fairly decent prospect at home. Very little is known about the opposition so we are keeping stakes sensible but are expecting a big run today."

The 4/1 with Paddy Power and Hills went as we were typing the email which was annoying. It was still available with Sky Bet and Sporting Bet but it isn't fair to use those prices in our results as they aren't exactly known for taking a 'proper' bet.

Very well backed down to 7/4 favourite at the off, Hazy Tom was always in a decent position on the inside and although he was short of room with around half a mile to run could be called the winner by that stage.
He hit the front with a furlong to run and came away comfortably.

A decent day and that ended what has been a very nice week for us.

Some great racing lined up over the next week and the flat season is now really starting to get going.
Lots lined up and we are expecting a great time over the next few months.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 8 April 2011

Good run Sir!

One account bet for us today.

Sir Harry Ormesher, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 is finally more like his old self at home and was fancied to run his best race of the season today.

He went off a 14/1 chance and was settled in mid division for the first half of the race.
He was niggled along a few times inside the last mile but made some good progress with a couple of furlongs to run and traded just above evens in running. For a minute we were thinking we had landed a nice big one!
He lacked a turn of foot late on but stayed on gamely but under pressure to get 3rd place.

A nice run at a decent price.

No-one will need telling its the big one tomorrow. We are still more than happy with our ante post bet.
We may have another bet at Aintree as well as a possible interest at Chepstow. More will become clearer when the calls come in tomorrow.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 6 April 2011

Done in a tight finish

One account bet for us today, a close one.

Club Oceanic, 4pt win @ 7/4 (B.O.G. returned 9/4) was a strong fancy after wintering particularly well.
Connections were pleased with his handicap weight and he was fancied to run a big race.

Lots of money just before the off for Indian Jack saw our bet go off a 9/4 chance.

There was little early pace and our selection pulled slightly in behins on the rails but travelled nicely enough.
He didn't pick up instantly when asked the question but picked up well inside the final 100 yards to finish 3rd, beaten 2 short heads in a 3 way photo finish.

No excuses. He ran well, just not quite well enough.

Aintree's Grand National meeting starts tomorrow.
Great racing bit its unlikely we will be having a bet tomorrow. The first 3 races all feature odds on favourites and the remainder of the card looks very trappy.

We may have an interest at Ripon but will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Oh for a level break!

One account bet for us today, possibly an unlucky one.

Cape Melody, 3pt win @ 7/2. (B.O.G. returned 11/2) was fancied to put in an improved performance in cheekpieces in what looked a very tight handicap.

In the stalls, Sunset Kitty played up badly. This may or may not have affected our selection but when the stalls opened she missed the break by around 8 lengths.
After 50 yards she was trading at 75 on Betfair!

She ran well enough though obviously without having any chance of winning and was beaten around 4 lengths.
Would she have won with a level break?
Its hard to tell. Its not as clear as missed the break by 8 lengths, beaten 4 lengths so she would have won by 4 lengths.

Either way it doesn't matter as these things happen and we lost our money on the day.

Lots and lots to look forward to over the next month or 6 weeks.
We have around 10 horses that will be account bets when they run that should be out shortly. We are hoping for a great month or two.
The flat season is starting to get going properly!

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 3 April 2011

Weekend catchup

One bet on Saturday and one bet today for us.

Saturday's bet was Penitent, 3pt win @ 9/4
This horse landed a real nice touch for us this time last year when landing a decent gamble to win the Lincoln.
He was entered in the Lincoln as well as a race in France but connections opted for this race. It was felt that if he stayed he probably would win.

A huge gamble on the day, he started an 11/8 chance.
(At some point we need to write a gamble to cover what is a gamble and what isn't. Many punters believe a horse being punted from 33/1 into 14/1 at Wolverhampton on a Thursday night is a huge punt but 9/4 into 11/8 at Kempton on a Saturday isn't...)

Penitent settled well enough tracking the leaders and looked set to pounce with a couple of furlongs to run.
When Frankie asked him to quicken he found very little and could only plug on at the same pace to finish 4th. Whether he didn't stay, wasn't fit enough or just wasn't good enough is hard to tell.

To make matters worse, William Haggas won the race with his second string, Shamali.
This one wasn't fancied at all. (Opened 12/1, went off 12/1)
In fact, the trainer told the Racing Post "I'll be staggered if Shamali wins, as he's sure to need the run. He was never really right this year and hasn't run since May. He's had leg problems, so running here on an even surface was preferable to most other options"

Now, the cynics will say that he said that to get a better price on his second string, blah blah blah, but the amount of money that was lost on Penitent tells the true story. There were a lot of gutted punters at Kempton!

On to Sunday which was much better.

We backed, King Of Eden, 1pt e/w @ 10/1
This horse did us some great favours last year and had really grown and strengthened over the winter. That and the fast ground made connections hopeful he would stay the extra furlong today and if so, was fancied to run a big race.
The ground wasn't great, with lots of grassless patches at Donny so we kept our stakes sensible.

Our selection went off a 10/1 chance as money poured on Ivory Silk. (13/2 into 9/2)
He was always in a handy position in around 6th place and made headway with around 2 furlongs to run. He hit the front with a furlong to run and stayed on very well to hold Ivory Silk by a head.

A nice and very welcome 10/1 winner after a pretty difficult week.

This week is all about Aintree and our Grand National ante post bet continues to shorten in price. He could still go off favourite.
Connections are still very confident that with a clear round he is the one to beat.

There will probably be a few bets between now and the start of Aintree on Thursday with a couple of interesting runners lined up from one of our favourite yards...

Thanks for reading

Friday, 1 April 2011

Panama At Sixth

One account bet for us today, a poor one.

Panama At Once, 2pt e/w @ 15/2 - B.O.G. returned 10/1 - was thought to be coming back to a bit of form after taking his time to settle into the new yard.
He ran an improved race last time and any improvement on that was expected to see him bang there at the end.

He ran up with the pace and sat in 3rd place for the first couple of miles.
Although he jumped well throughout he lacked the pace to go with the leaders when the pace picked up. He stayed on well enough inside the last couple of furlongs but could only manage 6th place.

The flat season starts 'for real' tomorrow with the Lincoln, the main piece of a good card at Donny.
We should be having at least one account bet.

Thanks for reading