Thursday, 31 March 2011

No Dream from Whisperer

One account bet today but we couldn't turn round a loss making month.

Dream Whisperer, 2pt win @ 15/2 is a nice filly who has been showing plenty at home.
With her being up against a field of unknowns we kept stakes sensible.

She was very well supported down to 9/2 at the off but did herself no favours by missing the start slightly.
She was always chasing the leaders and ran slightly green, only managing to finish 5th.

The winner, Jack Who's He ran a nice race and looks a fairly promising animal.

Our selection will be winning soon though and we probably won't desert her just yet. She is better than she showed today.

March ended 14.5 points down, unfortunately.

We will continue to play sensible stakes on the flat for the next week or two but we do have a few very interesting horses on the radar where we will stake appropriately when they appear.

Overall the flat season looks set to be an exciting one. Hopefully it will be a very profitable one as well!

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Bump bump bump!

One account bet for us today with no luck in running unfortunately.

Lemon Drop Red, 3pt win @ 10/3 was thought to be well handicapped and expected to take all the beating with a clear run.
Those last four words were key!

He went off the 3/1 favourite and missed the break but a length or two.

From there it didn't get much better as he was bumped consistently. The official form line of "slowly into stride, took keen hold, held up towards rear, steadied off heels and went left inside final 6f, hampered and shuffled back inside final 4f, pushed along and stayed on inside final furlong, never able to challenge" doesn't really tell the story.

Unfortunately, Matt Chapman of At The Races spotted the lack of luck and mentioned it a fair few times!

This horse will be winning soon. Unfortunately many more will know about it than they did today...

Thanks for reading

Monday, 28 March 2011

The flat is coming...

Our first day back today after a week off but no account bets.

The racing today was pretty awful and with the fast going there were some strange races, especially at Plumpton where some fancied horses ran no race whatsoever.

There was a big gamble on Soccerjackpot in the first race and he was struggling early on as well as Ethiopia in the 4th race who was well supported but struggled throughout.

A good day to have no bet overall.

We are hopeful there will be a bet tomorrow and the flat season starts on Wednesday.

Lots to look forward to this flat season and we are hoping it will be our best one ever.
One of our main stables has a really nice intake of two year olds and will be landing some nice gambles for sure!

There are just over 3 days now to take advantage of our 33% bonus on memberships. This applies to both new and existing members - full details are here...

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 19 March 2011

Not quite Dermot

One account bet for us today.

Uncle Dermot, 3pt win @ 10/3 has really matured of late and with doubts about the fitness of the favourite was fancied to run a big race.

He was settled near the back early on and made good progress approaching the final furlong, trading odds on in running.
However, he looked to run into a fairly decent one in the shape of Aanna Heneeih who won by a relatively easy half a length.

We now have a much needed week off. Our first in well over a year!

We are back on the 28th March.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 18 March 2011

Cheltenham Day 4

No account bets for us today, other than a small ante post bet in the Gold Cup.

The racing was very trappy and there really is little point in forcing a bet just because its Cheltenham. That does no favours to anyone in the long run.

A while back we had Kempes, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 mainly because of the doubts surrounding those at the head of the market.
It turned out that pretty much all those at the head of the market were on their A game and Kempes wasn't.
A fantastic race to watch though and a superb ride on the winner from young Sam.

As we thought, picking winners today was very hard although there were some great finishes.
Final Approach and Get Me out Of Here was a great finish with Ruby just spoiling a gamble on the runner up.
Sir Des Champs won another great race to watch, winning under another very good ride.

We had 5 bets over the 4 days, losing a point and a half.
We also had 2 ante post bets that saw 6 points going astray.

So, its back to 'normal' racing from now on and to be honest that suits us much better.
We were saying to a member not long ago we would rather have a decent bet on a maiden at Plumpton where we have a strong word for one rather than play heavily in a race where every horse is trying for its life!

We are hopeful of at least one account bet tomorrow and already have lots lined up for the flat season which is only  a couple of weeks away!

We already have some interesting information for a horse at a big price in the Lincoln.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Cheltenham Day 3

Two account bets for us today, a much better day for us.

First up was Chartreux, 2pt e/w @ 13/2.
This one had squeaked into the race on bottom weight. He had been put away after a run on New Years Day to protect his handicap mark with this race in mind.

He travelled well in mid division but made a couple of mistakes when push came to shove, including a bad one at the second to last hurdle. That cost him any chance and he was eased from there.
Frustratingly, David Pipe won the race with his second string runner, Buena Vista.

Second up was Junior, 2pt e/w @ 5/1.
Very similar to Chartreux, this one had been kept in cotton wool with this race in mind.

The subject of a huge gamble, he went off the 10/3 favourite and was always in the front rank.
He looked to be in slight trouble when the leader kicked clear with 4 to jump but Junior got after him and took the lead with 2 to jump.
Driven clear he won by a very comfortable 24 lengths!

So, much better for us, and many punters today.
A big relief to be off the mark after a tricky couple of days. It was getting quite stressful at SimpleBet HQ!

Some weather forecasts suggest quite a bit of rain for Cheltenham tomorrow so there could be a going change.

We should be having at least one account bet though, along with our ante post bet which runs in the Gold Cup.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Cheltenham Day 2

Well, its definately 2-0 to the bookies as far as we are concerned after day two at Cheltenham.

We had one bet on the day and an ante post bet to run.

First up was So Young, 4pt win @ 5/2.
This horse has been the talking horse of the festival and there was a huge buzz about his chances today.
Backed all week, the money continued to come and he went off a very tight 2/1.

He was held up and started to make some headway with 3 to jump but was carried wide and bumped slighly with a couple to jump.
Meanwhile, Oscars Well was cantering. That one made a terrible mistake at the last but so did our runner.
So Young had a great deal of momentum approaching the last before fluffing it. Impossible to say he would have won but if the race were run again we would be backing the same selection.
He could only finish 3rd with Oscars Well finishing an also unlucky 4th.

Our second bet was an ante post bet on our idea of the banker of the meeting, Time For Rupert, 4pt win @ 5/2.
Anther huge buzz for this horse today and tons of money came for him all morning, leading him to go off a 7/4 favourite.

For some reason, he ran completely flat today. He just didn't pick up at all and finished a very disappointing 5th.

Not a great day and judging by many of the blogs, many punters were hit hard today.

Still, there are two more days to go and we are still hopeful of some big runs, especially on Friday.

Tomorrow looks very tricky but we are expecting at least one account bet. Lets hope for an upturn in fortunes.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Cheltenham Day 1

Two account bets today and two poor runs unfortunately.

First up was a speculative bet on Magens Star, 1pt e/w @ 22/1 in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
She could have done with a bit of give in the ground but was very much an unknown factor, having won both her races with ease to date.

Well backed into 14/1 at the off she didn't get the clear early lead she wanted as she was taken on by Dunraven Storm.
She led or disputed to 3 out where she weakened.
As we mentioned, a speculative bet but one that was worth a punt in our opinion.

Second up was Medermit, 4pt win @ 3/1 in the Arkle.
Alan King made no secret of the fact that he regarded this horse as his best chance of a winner at this years Festival.
The plan was to track the pace and try to take the lead up the hill.

He didn't jump too fluently and was never travelling as well as the leaders.
He finished a disappointing 4th, beaten around 10 lengths. We will try to find out the reason for this poor run as it certainly wasn't expected.

Annoyingly, Alan went on to win the next race with Bensalem under a great ride from Choc.

Day one didn't go our way but there are three more to go.

There should be at least one account bet tomorrow along with an ante post bet that runs.

Thanks for reading

Monday, 14 March 2011

Calm before the storm

After a few quiet days the big one starts in less than 24 hours...

We have one small account bet to catch up with first though, from Sunday afternoon.
Hidden Crack, 2pt win @ 9/2 was an unlucky loser last time when he came down at the last.
He was thought to still be on a decent mark, providing he got the extra distance.

He went off a 7/2 chance, having touched as low as 5/2 and travelled nicely tracking the leaders for the majority of the race.
He didn't pick up at all when asked the question with 3 to jump though and stayed on at one pace to finish 6th.

A couple of poor runs from our last 2 bets, albeit small stakes at big prices.

So, it all gets underway at 1.30 tomorrow.
We won't be staking crazy but do have a decent few bets to look forward to including at least one bet tomorrow.

From a plot perspective we are more interested in a runner away from Cheltenham over the next few days. We may stake slightly heavier there than at the Festival if we get the right word!

If you are going to Cheltenham, staying at home to watch on tv, or going to another meeting over the next 4 days we wish you the best of luck.
Its sure to be a great 4 days of racing. Lets hope its a very profitable period as well.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 12 March 2011

No Way...

One small account bet for us today on a very difficult one for the punters.

Old Way, 1pt e/w @ 18/1 was considered possibly well handicapped. Taking a big step up in class but getting in off bottom weight this improving horse was fancied to spring a surprise today.

He never really got into the race and by halfway we could see we were up against it.
Pulled up with a few furlongs to go this was a very disappointing run.

Not too much damage done overall and arguably worth a go at a big price but in hindsight we may have been better sitting the day out and waiting until Tuesday.

There is a chance of a bet either tomorrow or Monday but there will of course be at least one bet on Tuesday when Cheltenham gets underway.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 8 March 2011

A good pancake day!

Shrove Tuesday (Pancake Day) today and we had two account bets on what has been a pretty quiet month to date.

First up was Wheres Reiley, 3pt win @ 7/2 (B.O.G. paid 4/1)
We were close to putting this up as an account bet last time out as connections have felt he is on a winning mark for a while now.

He drifted slightly in the betting before the off as money came for quite a few of his opponents but broke very well and was in the front rank early on.
He led after a couple of furlongs and was pushed clear from there. Eased down inside the last furlong he won by a very easy 4 lengths.

A great start to the day.

Second up was Shaking Hands, 2pt win @ 11/2 (B.O.G. returned 6/1) in the Devon National.
This lightly raced horse won well last time out and was fancied to run a big race today if he saw out the extra distance.
Because of the doubt over the step up in trip we decided to go win only rather than each way.

Unfortunately the distance wasn't as much of a problem as the fences were!
He jumped badly at roughly half the fences and was never going to win with such a poor round of jumping.
He jumped well last time out, showing how important it is to get into a good rhythm early on. He never got into a rhythm and that really showed in his jumping throughout.

Fortunately a good decision to play win only there.

A decent profit on the day and we are now back in profit for the month.

One week from now, Cheltenham will be underway. Can't wait!

Thanks for reading

Monday, 7 March 2011

Saturday Catch up

Apologies, we are running slightly behind.
It's quite busy at SimpleBet HQ as we prepare for Cheltenham with lots of preview meetings up and coming.


One account bet for us on Saturday.

Minella Four Star, 2pt e/w @ 6/1 ran a great race for us last time out when an account bet and finishing second at a big price.
Still thought to be well handicapped, the yard were expecting a place at minimum.

He went off a 5/1 chance and was disputing for much of the early part of the race.
Unfortunately of us, Presenting Forever fell with 5 to jump and badly hampered our selection who was pulled up almost immediately after.

To be fair he would have been unlikely to win given how he was travelling at the time but a place was still a distict possibility.

In other news, a couple of our ante post bets have started to shorten up.
We look to have some decent value at the moment. Lets hope that value is turned into decent profit come race day.

Cheltenham is just over a week away and things are really starting to get exciting.
Lots of information flying around and we are hoping for a really profitable week.
We are looking at a couple of strong bets including one at a very big price. We won't be releasing them until the day though as there is rain forecast towards the end of the week so we will be keeping an eye on the going.

There is also the probability of a plot horse running during the week at one of the lesser meetings, while all eyes are on the big one...

We will be taking a week off after the Festival, our first holiday for well over a year!
Members will of course have that period added to their membership.

The good news for non members is that they can join now and, with the week off after Cheltenham to be added, their membership will also cover Aintree.
They will also get our two ante post bets for the Festival as well as our bet for The Grand National of course.

Everyone is a winner!

Thanks for reading

Friday, 4 March 2011

Betting percentages reposted

As this is such an important part of betting and we wrote it over a year ago we thought it was worth a repost...

One of the most important areas of gambling is also one of the least understood.

So what is a percentage in betting and why do you need to know about them?

If you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will come up heads and a 50% chance it will come up tails. Both these outcomes added together = 100%

Likewise, if you throw a dice there is a 16.66% chance of throwing a six. 16.66*6 = 100%

So, how does this impact on betting?
Betting odds are simply a percentage chance of an outcome of a race. Therefore, an even money chance in a horse race has a 50% chance of winning the race. The same chance of a coin coming up heads. In a 100% book. (We will come to this later)

Bookmakers show odds, rather than percentages.
Decimal odds are now commonly used on line and these are very easy to work out from a percentage.
If you work a horse out to have a 25% change of winning a race simply divide 100/25 and you get 4. Therefore the decimal odds of this are 4, the fractional odds are 3/1.
A 3/1 chance is 25% of the total book.

If there were 4 runners in a race and they were all priced 3/1, the percentage of the book would be 100%. However, if bookmakers did this they would never show a profit.
They are more likely to go
2/1 (33.3%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)

This is called an overround book because the total percentage of the book is 108.3%. This is 8.3% in the book makers favour as you would need to stake £108.30 on the race to guarantee getting £100 back.

Percentages are essential as well as knowing how to calculate percentages because the bigger the overround book you are betting in, the more money you will lose.
There are some horse race meetings (Kempton in the evening for instance) where the percentage book is as much as 140%. Punters are still asking to 'take a price' in this instance when the odds as massively against them.

So, if you are in the bookies for an opening show for a greyhound race is 6/4, 2/1, 3/1, 3/1, 7/2 and 9/2 don't take a price. Its almost certain that at least five of these prices will increase as they simply have to for the bookmakers credibility if nothing else. (see the popular prices below and work this book out!)

Hopefully this all makes sense. If not, please feel free to get in touch with us. It really is very important that if you are having a bet you understand percentages.

Some of the most popular ones are:
1/4 (80%)
1/3 (75%)
1/2 (66.6%)
1/1 (50%)
6/4 (40%)
2/1 (33.3)
3/1 (25%)

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 2 March 2011

Reach down

One small bet foir us today, a poor one.

We sent out Reach Out, 1.5pt e/w @ 14/1 early as we expected him to be well supported in his first handicap run.
The step up in trip was expected to help and connections believed he was fairly weighted.

He went off a 10/1 chance and raced up with the pace in the early stages of the race.
He started to struggle with just over half a mile to run though and finished a very disappointing 6th of 9. Not the run we were hoping for.

We will continue to play sensibly as we approach Cheltenham but there is a fair chance of a bet tomorrow.

Thanks for reading