Sunday, 31 October 2010

TFI November, tomorrow

The best thing that can be said about October is that its now over!

In complete contrast to last October (where we showed over 100 points profit) we ended this month 35 points behind.

A couple of results to catch up on since we last blogged.

We had two account bets on Friday.
Cloudy Too 1.5pt e/w @ 10/1
First time under rules over hurdles this one was fancied to put in a big run after working very nicely at home.
Unfortunately he went lame with around a mile to run and was pulled up.

We also backed Tweedy, 2pt win @ 11/2 in the evening over in Ireland.
An impressive performance from this filly last time out was fancied to be repeated as she had improved further for that run.
She was well backed into 7/2 at the off but couldn't get the eraly lead she required and finished mid division.

On Saturday we had one small win bet.
Elas Diamond, 3pt win @ 3/1
She was another one who was very impressive last time out and had improved further for the run. The 3/1 didn't last long after our message was sent so we recorded her at 11/4 for our results.
Another of our selections to be supported very well in the market, she went off the 7/4 favourite.
She looked set to win, travelling well and taking the lead inside the final furlong. Unfortunately she edged right under pressure and was caught in the final 100 yards and could only manage second.

One small account bet today.
Hatman Jack, 1pt e/w @ 14/1 was a horse who could surprise at a big price.
Fitted with a tongue tie and cheekpieces as well as a return to his favourite surface made connections hopeful taht he would regain some of his old zip.
Unfortunately this was another horse that finished lame, being virtually pulled up with a couple of furlongs to go.

A really poor month is now at a close.
We have at least 12 horses earmarked to run in November as well as one plot horse to pay the stable staff's Christmas bonus money. (Last years one won at 7/1)

We are both hopeful and confident November will bring about a big improvement in results.

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 27 October 2010

Much welcomed

A very much needed winner from our only account bet today.

Kack Handed, 3pt win @ 5/1 was fancied today after his run last time out was under the wrong conditions.
He hates going right handed so was expected to put up a big show on todays left handed track.
Given the recent form we have been in we thought long and hard about putting up a maiden as an account bet but fortunately we did!

Kack Handed jumped pretty poorly throughout but was given a very srtong ride to get up close home to win by half a length.
There were a couple of small rule 4's but today still yielded a much needed profitable day.

Hopefully this is a corner turner. Fingers crossed!

They may well be an account bet tomorrow but we will know more in the morning.

Thanks for reading

Tuesday, 26 October 2010

More rubbish...

The bad run continues with two more account bets today.

First up was Durante Aligheiri 1.5pt e/w @ 12/1
This is thought of as a high class horse at home and has been showing up well with some of the yards better runners.
Quite simply he hated the ground and ran no race whatsoever.
He is a lot better than this and is one for the notebook.

Secondly we had Woodlark Island 3pt win @ 3/1
The yard were hoping to get an uncontested lead for this one who ran into a well handicapped sort last time out.
Unfortunately he was taken on for the lead throughout and although he traded just above evens with one to jump could only manage 3rd.

The awful October continues. We have said this quite often over the last few weeks!

Credit must go to our members through this terrible run though as we haven't had one member complain.
Many (over 80%) have been with us for well over a year so are obviously playing with decent profits but a run like this is felt by everyone. Hopefully we will be through it soon.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 23 October 2010

Same story...

October continues and so does our poor run.

Two small account bets today but no good.

Madawi, 1pt e/w @ 12/1 was given one last chance today.
Highly thought of by the yard this horse has yet to produce the goods on the track.

He was well supported into 7/1 at the off but struggled to get into the race until the final furlong.
He finished well but was never in contention, grabbing 4th on the line.
Maybe this horse may be seen to be as good as the yard believe he is next season when stepped up to a mile or further.

Our second bet was from the same yard. Zaidan, 1pt e/w @ 20/1 put in a poor run last time out but there were plenty of excuses for that.

He went off a 16/1 chance and dwelt at the start slightly.
There wasn't a fast early pace and he was soon close enough but when asked to make an impression approaching the final furlong he found little.
It could be argued that he was on the slowest part of the track but that may be clutching at straws.

So, the horrible run continues.
This is probably our worst run since last summer when were couldn't buy a winner.

We will keep at it and things will turn round soon. Hopefully very soon!

Thanks for reading

Wednesday, 20 October 2010

Wake us up when October ends!

Our horrible run is October continued today with two small account bets.

First up was Sworn Tigress, 2pt win @ 3/1.
A fairly decent horse on the flat, she has schooled fairly well. Although her jumping will improve in time she was thought to be too classy for the opposition today.

She was held up in midfield and not jumping too badly but hit a hurdle 4 out and faded quickly from there. She was eased down and returned slightly lame.

Next up was Starshine, 1.5pt e/w @ 10/1.
This filly has been very slow to come to hand this season but was showing more at home and the step up in trip was expected to help.
She was well supported down to 7/1 at the off but the lack of early pace didn't do her any favours.
She struggled to pick up when some pace was injected with 3 furlongs to run. Once she got going she picked up well but could only manage to finish 5th. beaten just over a length for 3rd.

So, the extremely difficult October continues.
Ironically last October was our best month ever but October 2010 has been very poor.

Hoping for a big change in fortunes very soon.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 17 October 2010

Almost better...

A slight improvement on Saturday in that both our selections ran well enough.

First up was Delegator, 4pt win @ 2/1
He won well four weeks ago and had come on a lot for that run which was his first outing of the season.
He was very well supported and went off the 6/4 favourite.

He travelled well enough early on and was switched to the outside with a couple of furlongs to run. He didn't get the clearest of runs from there but in all honesty didn't look to have the turn of foot that would have been expected from him to put the race to bed.
He could only manage 4th, beaten about 3 lengths.
In hindsight he was running on the slowest part of the track and this run wasn't as bad as it first appeared. He may now go to the Breeders Cup meeting.

Second up was Buxted 1pt e/w @ 20/1
This horse had a very hard race in tricky going at Longchamp in May and was given a long time off to recover from that race.
He was in desperate need of his comeback race and was in much better shape for this run.

He went off a 12/1 chance and was settled at the rear of the pack to try to ensure he got the distance.
He stayed on well inside the last half a mile and although he was never going to catch the winner he managed to get us the each way money and get 3rd.
The ground was softer than he would really want and hopefully if the ground comes up right we might get a winner from this horse before the season.

Overall a break even day and both horses ran ok considering different 'excuses' for their performances.

We have a few interesting runners lined up this season as a few trainers are desperate to get wins from certain horses before the flat season comes to an end.

Thanks for reading

Friday, 15 October 2010

SimpleBet Friday

Close to a small change in fortunes today with one account bet.

Lamasaas, 1.5pt e/w @ 10/1 was expected to improve on recent showings today.
An account bet for us a few months ago when he ran very green, he had been given some time away from the track to grow and mature.
A much better run was expected today.

He didn't break too well and pulled very hard, thus being held up at the rear of the pack.
He was produced on the outside inside the last two furlongs with a good run and although he never looked likely to catch the impressive winner, Desert Law, he looked set to be placed.
However, he couldn't quite get 3rd place and only managed 4th.

Some great racing tomorrow and we have at least one account bet lined up.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 14 October 2010

No change in fortunes

Poor stuff again yesterday with two small account bets.

First up was Lhermitage, 2pt win @ 7/2.
This one was very green on debut and expected to improve dramatically for that run.
He went off 10/3 but was pretty much as green as his debut run and never posed a threat. Very disappointing.

Second up was Expensive Problem, 2pt win @ 8/1.
The 8/1 went as soon as our message was sent out so we settled this as 7/1. Not that it mattered much!
He was expected to show improved form now back to his best trip after starting to show more at home.
Unfortnately he ruined his chances by pulling much too hard on the outside for the first half of the race.

Poor stuff and our miserable October continues.
Fortunately we have staked very sensibly but are now 14.5 points behind for the month.

Its unlikely there will be a bet today but there is some great racing coming up on Friday and Saturday.

Thanks for reading

Sunday, 10 October 2010

Wrong choice...

One account bet for us today and we picked the wrong one unfortunately.

Williams Way, 2pt win @ 9/2 was thought to be well handicapped after a run over a trip too short for him last time out to get him ready for this race.
This race had been the target for a while but we were also aware that George Baker's yard thought Bugsy's Boy was on a handy mark.

The message for Williams Way was stronger in our opinion, unfortunately!

Money came for much of the field as many of the runners were cleary fancied.

Williams Way was put to sleep at the rear of the field and made eye catching progress progress with around half a mile to run.
He looked to fail to stay though and went from looking a challenger to having no chance within a furlong.

Bugsy's Boy by this point was in front and stayed on bravely to win at 15/2.

Very frustrating when we have more than one message in a race and pick the wrong one but it does happen unfortunately.

Lots to look forward to this week though and we are hoping for a big turnaround in fortunes as October has been very disappointing so far.

Thanks for reading

Saturday, 9 October 2010

SimpleBet Saturday

Two account bets for us today, both each way.

First up was Genki, 2pt e/w @ 11/2. B.O.G. paid 6/1.
This one is considered unlucky to have only won one race this season as he has been unlucky in running a couple of times and not had the best of draws.

He was pushed along at halfway but picked up very nicely to take the lead inside the final furlong.
Unfortunately for us, Bewitched came from out of the pack to pick up our horse inside the final 100 yards. Genki finished second, beaten just under a length.

Secondly we had Poets Place 2pt e/w @ 7/1
This horse was considered still very well handicapped. An unlucky loser last time out he was fancied to gain compensation here.
He was well supported down to 9/2 by off time.

He broke well and was up in the front rank for the first 3 furlongs but was then pushed along.
He faded close home finishing a disappointing 11th.

Maybe he was drawn on the wrong side as the winner came up the rails but more likely would be that he has had a hard season and just didn't run as well as expected.

Overall a 3 point loss on the day.

There will probably be a bet tomorrow but nothing certain at this stage.

Thanks for reading

Thursday, 7 October 2010

Poor, poor

Two small account bets today, neither of them running well.

First up we had Abbakhan 1pt e/w @ 8/1
This horse was given a fairly easy time on his debut when he was as green as grass. He was expected to improve a great deal for the outing.

He was well backed into 5/1 and looked to be travelling well for the first half of the race but when they quickened up he found very little.
Connections later said the tacky ground was the reason the horse ran so poorly.

Secondly we had Petella 3pt win @ 7/4.
This one won well last time out and she was expected to follow up today.
She had run well in all of her races this season... until today.

The plan was always to settle her in the rear of the pack and come through late. She was held up right at the back of the pack but, similar to Abbakhan, found very little when being asked to quicken.

Two poor runs today which takes us to -6.5 points on the month.

There may well be a bet tomorrow but that won't be certain until tomorrow.

Thanks for reading

Monday, 4 October 2010

Results catch up

A quick catch up from us as its been a busy few days or so at SimpleBet HQ!

We had two account bets on Saturday.

First up was a very rare 1p win bet.
Madawi, 1pt win @ 22/1 is thought to be a very decent horse at home.
He ran well first time out in a decent maiden and then put in a run that was much better than it looked at face value last time out.
There was very little each way value in the race so we decided to play win only.

He was backed into 16/1 and ran a fair race without looking likely to win.

We had a similar situation with Elkmait from this yard recently.
They were convinced she was a decent animal on their hands but didn't show up to be as good as they rated her when she was on the track.
We backed her a few times and she disappointed each time. As soon as we decided to leave her alone, she hacked up!
Keep an eye on Madawi as that may well be the case soon...

Second up was a desperately unlucky loser.
Iver Bridge Lad, 1pt win @ 10/1 had been waiting for some give in the ground and a 7 furlong race.

He went off at 9/1 and was always travelling well along the rail.
From a couple of furlongs out it looked unlikely a gap was going to appear and he was switched left around a few horses for a run.
He came with a rattling late finish and just failed to get up, finishing a short head second.
A stride after the line he was a neck in front but those are the breaks.

Half a point in profit on Saturday but a short head away from an extra 10 points profit.

There were no bets on Sunday but one small bet today.

Squires Gate, 2pt win @ 9/4 normally loves to get his toe in and was thought to be well handicapped in this tricky looking race.
Because of the desperate ground we kept stakes very small.

He went off the 2/1 favourite but ran no race at all.
He looked to sulk when he couldn't get the lead early on as he likes and was hanging badly after just 2 furlongs.

A very disappointing run.

The rest of the week looks pretty unsettled so we will be keeping stakes sensible until it settles down.

That said, there are a lot of interesting runners tomorrow so its likely there will be at least one account bet.

We have had a lot of recent interest in our service over the last few days so we must have had some favourable mentions somewhere.
Not too sure where that was but its most appreciated!

Thanks for reading