Some days everything goes right. Some days everything goes wrong.
Today was the latter where we got it completely wrong.
One account bet for us but first up was our old 'friend' Elkmait.
We have backed her on all 3 runs to date but she has been intent on ruining her chances before the race started by getting upset in the stalls.
We mentioned her in our email to members but only to say we were leaving her alone until she wins a race as we can't keep throwing money at her.
Typically, she went in the stalls last, didn't play up at all and then came out to win easily by around 7 lengths. Finally proving why connections feel she is a group horse in the making.
Another one who connections feel could make up into a decent horse was our only account bet today.
Lamasaas, 5pt win @ 2/1 is potentially a very good horse and thought to be much better than his opponents today.
He was well backed all day so the on course drift was no real surprise as the on course bookies obviously hadn't taken any money on him all day.
He missed the break by about 6 lengths and it was always a losing battle from there on in.
He also didn't help himself by running pretty green and lugging left handed throughout and could only finish about 6th.
Very disappointing when we get it so wrong but it does happen. We had a call to make but after sticking with Elkmait for 3 losing runs we decided we had to cut our losses.
We have already had a few emails from members who stuck with Elkmait though, so well done to them.
Its always a difficult question, whats worse - backing a loser or not backing a winner?
We managed to do both of those things today so aren't best placed to answer that!
We still have a couple of strong bets lined up for later in the week and hopefully we can redress the balance from today.
Thanks for reading
SimpleBet
http://www.simplebet.net/
One account bet for us yesterday, Stefanki 4pt win @ 9/4.
This horse had switched yards to George Baker's and had settled in nicely, showing up very well at home.
Thought to be well handicapped on what he was showing at home, connections were on early and the money was down big time.
He missed the break somewhat and was settled at the back but once Tony Culhane brought him round the field approaching the final furlong there was only going to be one outcome.
He went on to be a very comfortable winner by just over 3 lengths at a well backed 6/4.
We said recently, the Baker yard know how to get one ready!
Our last 4 bets from the yard have yielded 2 winners and 2 arguably unlucky seconds.
Had the price for Explorator been better that would have been 3 winners from 5 runners.
We were hoping for 6/4 ish about this one, in which case we had a maximum bet lined up. Unfortunately he opened up odds on and although drifting slightly before the off, returned 4/6.
He was made to sweat for his win slightly with Sheila's Bond - possibly an unlucky loser - running a great race in second place.
This month has ben very frustrating as far as profits go. We are 3 points down for the month.
However, almost every bet has run well.
Of the 10 bets we have had 2 winners, 2 seconds, 3 thirds and 2 unplaced. Only Elkmait and Srda have run poorly.
Hopefully this will continue, but with more winners than placed efforts.
Lots of rain around the country today and we have nothing lined up as yet. We will wait to see what the morning phone calls bring to see if there is a bet or not.
Thanks for reading
SimpleBet
http://www.simplebet.net/
A blank Saturday for us unfortunately, mainly due to more highly strung horse anticts!
We backed Group Therapy 3pt win @ 3/1 firstly.
He ponied to start and then proceeded to play up going into the stalls. Similar to Elkmait he was also pretty keen but still hit the front with a furlong or so to go and looked as though he might hold on.
He was caught inside the last 50 yards by Triple Aspect though. The playing up before the start may or may not have made the difference between first and second place.
Unfortunately no such excuse with our second bet, Srda 1pt e/w @ 16/1
There was a withdrawl, bringing the race down to 7 runners which is always frustrating for punters.
It didn't affect our bet though as she struggled throughout and was never close enough to land a blow. A disappointing run.
Poor racing today and tomorrow is typical Monday stuff.
We may still have a bet tomorrow though as there is one of interest.
Later in the week looks much busier.
There is some cracking racing to look forward to this week. We have 5 or so bets lined up.
Elsewhere, we are imposing a limit on the number of members we are accepting to ensure everyone can get the prices quoted.
This is due to a few requests by members who, quite rightly, want to make sure the price is available for everyone for as long as possible after our bets go out.
We still have places left and everyone who is currently a member will be able to renew.
We will update the blog and the website when we are close to our full allocation.
Thanks for reading
SimpleBet
http://www.simplebet.net/
One account bet for us today, Elkmait, 3pt win @ 11/2. (best odds guaranteed returned 6/1)
We have backed this one on all 3 of her starts to date but it may be time to call a halt to things after today.
First time out she ran a great race for a horse that connections believe is potentially group class at minimum.
Since then she has thrown her chances away before the race started and that was a similar story today. She got very excited in the paddock and reared in the stalls (as she did last time) before the race started.
When they were underway she was far too keen and with there only being 4 runners, could find no cover.
She kept on at one pace to finish 3rd but never looked like winning.
We will keep an eye on her but she may be one that is best left alone until she wins a race.
Connections are still adamant that this is a very nice horse and we haven't seen the best of her yet but we will see.
There will probably be a bet tomorrow and we have a couple already lined up for the weekend.
Thanks for reading
SimpleBet
http://www.simplebet.net/
One account bet for us today and it was one of our biggest bets of the year so far.
There was an extremely good word for Elkmait, 3pt e/w @ 9/2. (Best Odds Guaranteed was 13/2)
Thought to be an extremely promising filly, big things were expected on her debut and a place was the absolute minimum that was expected by connections.
We weren't concerned by the big drift before the off because the price had been smashed up on Betfair before the high street bookies had priced the market up. - There is often an on course drift when this happens as the on course bookies have no liability on a horse that was backed at bigger prices over night, hence pushing the price out on course.
She ran a good race to get 3rd but wasn't in the same league as the winner who looks a very nice horse and is apparently Royal Ascot bound next. Elkmait didn't get the best of runs inside the final furlong when she started getting the hang of things and may have got second but that pays the same as third so no problem! Small profit on the day, thanks for the on course drift.
Elsewhere there was a good word for Soul Station at Goodwood. He was given a great ride from the front and won with the second home (Hypnotized) possibly an unlucky loser.
We have a bet lined up tomorrow but again its being smashed on Betfair already so word is out.
We will evaluate in the morning and see how the ground lies.
Thanks for reading
SimpleBet
http://www.simplebet.net/
