Good start continues

Well, it was worth waiting for!
Our great start to March continues as Sworn Tigress 3pt win @ 2/1 wins with ease in the last race of the night at Wolverhampton as expected.

We had word from the yard that this horse was fully expected to do the business first time of asking for Sir Alex Ferguson (the owner) and she duly obliged by an easy 6 lengths.
Our stake was slightly tempered by the fact that we had a message that Barodine was trying for its life under new ownership - 3rd at 5/2 - but our Baker information is second to none.

Elsewhere there was very little to report.
We avoided George's other runner, Saddlers Bend in the 8.20 because although it was fancied, 3 races in a week was a potential problem. The early morning price of evens wasn't any value and although she ran a good race we made the right choice.

There was a good word for General Tufto in the 5.10 at Southwell but 7/4 in an amateurs race didn't float our boat. He was given an awful ride and is one to look out for next time out.

Lots of racing tomorrow and we have a couple to look out for. Maybe an account bet or even two.

Until then, thanks again for reading.
SimpleBet

March hat trick!

Another good day today with our advised bet, Desert Recluse 3pt win @ 5/2 winning with ease.
We were told this was a very well handicapped horse after earning its handicap mark by running over inadequate trips. Trading at 1.2 with 3 furlongs to run he was very handicapped indeed!
He went on to win by a comfortable 6 lengths but unfortunately has no imminent engagements or we may well have been playing our winnings up.

That makes it 3 out of 3 so far for March, long may that continue!

We thought it may be a no bet day but by 10am we had news on three horses all expected to run well! Fortunately we read the strength of the messages correctly and backed the right one.

We put Withnail up as a free bet on our website and Twitter as we had heard a very big run was expected on its first run for the new stable. The 8/1 soon disappeared and it went off a very well backed 3/1 favourite but was never near enough to challenge. One to look out for though.

Tonight there is a good word for Helium in the 8.45 at Kempton but with it being our least favourite betting track in the country we will be taking a watching brief.

Not a lot to look forward to tomorrow or Friday, unless there are any calls like todays, but we should have a decent bet on Saturday and Sunday- weather permitting.

Time to settle down for the England game now. No betting involved!

Thanks for reading.
SimpleBet

http://www.simplebet.net/

Super Srda!

A nice winner with our only account bet of the day, 2pts win on Srda at 5/2.

We had news that she was expected to win when she saw a racecourse a while back but there were some concerns that she may run a bit green, hence the small stakes.
There were no signs of greeness and she ran a great race, battling on well to win on the inside rail.

Elsewhere, not much else to report on the horses front today, other than Mille Chief being ruled out of the Triumph. A big shame as we were on at 12/1 each way but that's the nature of ante post betting.

We traded on the cricket once England started to get into trouble and ended up with a decent profit, laying England at a low of 1.17 and backing back at a high of 2.04 as well as playing at all odds in between.
A Bangladesh win would have been more profitable but our patriotic side is pleased with a profit and an England win!

Nothing lined up for tomorrow as yet, so maybe no bet but we will wait on some morning calls.

Thanks for reading!

March 1st, good start

We have a new website coming soon and are planning on blogging on most days as part of that so please remember to keep dropping by...

A good start to March  and to be fair it was needed after a pretty poor February.
Just one bet on the day but it was a fairly big stake with 6pts win on Saddlers Bend at 6/5.

Our contacts at George Baker's rarely let us down and while they didn't here but it was mighty close. Saddlers Bend was full of running as he hit the front with over a furlong to go and quickly traded 1.2 in running but certainly found the extended mile slightly too far and just held on.
The second, King's Icon could be considered an unlucky loser  but after some bad luck last month we deserved some luck coming our way!

Away from the account bet there was a good late word for Edgevine in the last at Plumpton but we steered away from a bet because the ground was pretty desperate by then. He managed 3rd at 10/1 but with only seven runners we were right not to play.

We have one small account bet today and lots to look forward to in March as the weather will hopefully settle down and allow us some steady ground over the coming weeks.

We have lots of ante post bets for Cheltenham and all are looking good value at this stage with the exception of Mille Chief who is now a doubtful runner.

Two weeks and counting until Cheltenham starts...

Best Odds Guaranteed

We get many emails asking which bookie we prefer to use and why.
We have no problem answering this from our experience, good and bad, with various bookies.

Firstly any bookie (traditional bookmaker rather than exchange) simply must offer best odds guaranteed (BOG) or they aren't competitive in this day and age.
A friend who works in the industry told us that offering best odds guaranteed reduced their net profit margin from 12% to 3% so it shows the difference it makes to their overall figures.

So, what is BOG and who offers it?
Simply put, you take a price and if the SP is bigger you get the SP. If the SP is smaller you yet the price you took so you can't lose.
The theory behind this is that the majority of horses that win shorten up in price but horses on the drift do win. Besides, you have nothing to lose if you are on at BOG.

Yesterdays account bet, Beau Fighter, was available at a best price of 14/1. With some firms as low as 9/1. It drifted out to 16/1 (was 28 on Betfair) and finished 3rd so we were paid out at 16/1. That meant the place paid 4/1 rather than 7/2. Small margins) but all important in the long run. See the post on percentages for more details.

When you see the amount of people in 'the big 3' boomakers shops round town and betting on every race it is simply amazing. (They don't offer BOG in their shops) Its no wonder these bookies win!

Who offers BOG and who do we recommend?
Many online bookies now offer BOG and we recommend three in particular. We won't name names but one BOG bookie closed our account after just five bets so we won't recommend them!

On our website we list our suggested three. Visit www.simplebet.net and click on the free bets link. Not only do you get BOG with these three bookies but you also get a great signing up bonus with them.
Add to that, if you sign up directly from the link on our website you get two weeks membership for free added. This is valid for new and existing members.

It really is win, win, win!

Betting percentages

One of the most important areas of gambling is also one of the least understood.
Percentages.

So what is a percentage in betting and why do you need to know about them?

If you toss a coin there is a 50% chance that it will come up heads and a 50% chance it will come up tails. Both these outcomes added together = 100%

Likewise, if you throw a dice there is a 16.66% chance of throwing a six. 16.66*6 = 100%

So, how does this impact on betting?
Betting odds are simply a percentage chance of an outcome of a race. Therefore, an even money chance in a horse race has a 50% chance of winning the race. The same chance of a coin coming up heads. In a 100% book. (We will come to this later)

Bookmakers show odds, rather than percentages.
Decimal odds are now commonly used on line and these are very easy to work out from a percentage.
If you work a horse out to have a 25% change of winning a race simply divide 100/25 and you get 4. Therefore the decimal odds of this are 4, the fractional odds are 3/1.
A 3/1 chance is 25% of the total book.

If there were 4 runners in a race and they were all priced 3/1, the percentage of the book would be 100%. However, if bookmakers did this they would never show a profit.
They are more likely to go
2/1 (33.3%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)
3/1 (25%)

This is called an overround book because the total percentage of the book is 108.3%. This is 8.3% in the book makers favour as you would need to stake £108.30 on the race to guarantee getting £100 back.

Percentages are essential as well as knowing how to calculate percentages because the bigger the overround book you are betting in, the more money you will lose.
There are some horse race meetings (Kempton in the evening for instance) where the percentage book is as much as 140%. Punters are still asking to 'take a price' in this instance when the odds as massively against them.

So, if you are in the bookies for an opening show for a greyhound race is 6/4, 2/1, 3/1, 3/1, 7/2 and 9/2 don't take a price. Its almost certain that at least five of these prices will increase as they simply have to for the bookmakers credibility if nothing else. (see the popular prices below and work this book out!)

Hopefully this all makes sense. If not, please feel free to get in touch with us. It really is very important that if you are having a bet you understand percentages.

Some of the most popular ones are:
1/4 (80%)
1/3 (75%)
1/2 (66.6%)
1/1 (50%)
6/4 (40%)
2/1 (33.3)
3/1 (25%)

How many bets?

How many bets are enough bets?

We recently had a member not renew because we don't have enough account bets for them.
Fair enough, each to their own.

We only bet when there is a decent reason to do so. Overall the odds have to be in our favour. That way in the long run you will win.

Walk into any local bookies and you will see people betting on every race they see. In these days of saturation coverage there are barely two minutes between either a horse race, dog race, virtual race or some numbers draw.
On the majority of these you are betting (in a shop) to around 120%, sometimes higher.
That means that on average you will get £100 pounds back for every £120 you stake. By betting on every race just for the sake of it you simply cannot win. Fact.

You have to wait until the time is right to have a bet. Let the bets find you if you like.

That takes discipline, one of the most important things in anyones betting armoury.

If you find yourself betting too often, try keeping a spreadsheet of all the bets you place and analyse it. You will probably be shocked but become more disciplined.

Now, we aren't against a fun bet now and then but just keep it sensible. We sometimes bet on silly things like x-factor, sports personality of the year (David Haye at 25/1 btw) but to very small stakes. That way its a bit of fun but doesn't have a serious impact on the overall profit.
We do keep a track of all bets though, even the fun ones.

Whatever you do, enjoy it but try to make a profit as well!

Good luck
SimpleBet